Ponferradinavs
Barakaldo
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · 10/24/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ponferradina · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Ponferradina 0-0 Barakaldo, with an exact score probability of 23%.
Prediction record
Final result
Ponferradina 0-0 Barakaldo
Original prediction
Ponferradina
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 08:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.17 | 41.9% | 39.9% | -2.1 pts |
| Draw | 2.87 | 31.8% | 32.6% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 3.47 | 26.3% | 27.5% | 1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.87 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.1 pts
Projected Score
Ponferradina 0–0 Barakaldo
Exact score probability: 23%
Predicted outcome
Ponferradina
Probability
39.9%
Model confidence
39.9%
Ponferradina has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20