Polonia Warszawavs
Polonia Bytom
COMPLETEDPoland · I Liga · 9/11/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Polonia Warszawa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Polonia Warszawa 2-2 Polonia Bytom
Original prediction
Polonia Warszawa
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.88 | 48.3% | 48.3% | -0.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 25.7% | 25.0% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 3.49 | 26.0% | 26.8% | 0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.54 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Polonia Warszawa
Probability
48.3%
Model confidence
48.3%
Polonia Warszawa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00