Polonia Warszawavs
Miedz Legnica
COMPLETEDPoland · I Liga · 10/23/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Polonia Warszawa · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Polonia Warszawa 1-1 Miedz Legnica
Original prediction
Polonia Warszawa
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.87 | 48.5% | 37.9% | -10.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.59 | 25.3% | 29.4% | 4.1 pts |
| Away | 3.46 | 26.2% | 32.7% | 6.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.59 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Polonia Warszawa
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
Polonia Warszawa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40