Polonia Warszawavs
Lechia Gdansk
COMPLETEDPoland · I Liga · 8/29/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Polonia Warszawa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Polonia Warszawa 2-4 Lechia Gdansk
Original prediction
Polonia Warszawa
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:58 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.46 | 62.5% | 58.1% | -4.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.43 | 20.5% | 22.5% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 5.36 | 17.0% | 19.4% | 2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Polonia Warszawa
Probability
58.1%
Model confidence
58.1%
Polonia Warszawa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80