Polonia Warszawavs
Chrobry Głogów
COMPLETEDPoland · I Liga · 9/19/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Polonia Warszawa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Polonia Warszawa 2-0 Chrobry Głogów
Original prediction
Polonia Warszawa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.84 | 49.1% | 43.1% | -6.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.2% | 27.0% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 3.67 | 24.7% | 29.9% | 5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.84 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Polonia Warszawa
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
43.1%
Polonia Warszawa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40