Polonia Środavs
Kluczevia Stargard
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 2 · 10/9/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Polonia Środa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Polonia Środa 2-0 Kluczevia Stargard
Original prediction
Polonia Środa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 8 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.70 | 53.0% | 43.6% | -9.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.90 | 23.1% | 25.6% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 3.79 | 23.8% | 30.8% | 6.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.70 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Polonia Środa
Probability
43.6%
Model confidence
43.6%
Polonia Środa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 9 · avg 2.80/1.80
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80