Polonia Środavs
Gedania Gdansk
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 2 · 8/28/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Polonia Środa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Polonia Środa 4-3 Gedania Gdansk
Original prediction
Polonia Środa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.25 | 72.3% | 55.1% | -17.3 pts |
| Draw | 5.47 | 16.5% | 21.5% | 5.0 pts |
| Away | 8.10 | 11.2% | 23.4% | 12.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Polonia Środa
Probability
55.1%
Model confidence
55.1%
Polonia Środa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80