Polonia Środavs
Elana Toruń
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 2 · 9/26/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Polonia Środa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Polonia Środa 2-2 Elana Toruń
Original prediction
Polonia Środa
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.35 | 66.6% | 53.0% | -13.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.76 | 18.8% | 21.0% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 6.18 | 14.5% | 25.9% | 11.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.77 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Polonia Środa
Probability
53.0%
Model confidence
53.0%
Polonia Środa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 18 · GA 12 · avg 3.60/2.40
GF 7 · GA 14 · avg 1.40/2.80