Politehnica UTMvs
Sheriff Tiraspol
COMPLETEDMoldova · Super Liga · 10/24/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sheriff Tiraspol · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-3 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Politehnica UTM 0-2 Sheriff Tiraspol
Original prediction
Sheriff Tiraspol
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 12:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.25 | 12.4% | 11.6% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.82 | 18.7% | 15.7% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 1.31 | 68.9% | 72.6% | 3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.31 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–210%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–39%
Predicted outcome
Sheriff Tiraspol
Probability
72.6%
Model confidence
72.6%
Sheriff Tiraspol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
GF 17 · GA 4 · avg 3.40/0.80