Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Police · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Police 0-0 UPDF
Original prediction
Police
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.68 | 53.2% | 43.4% | -9.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 26.7% | 27.3% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 4.45 | 20.1% | 29.3% | 9.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.36 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Police
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
43.4%
Police has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PoliceL
GF 0 · GA 1 · avg 0.00/1.00
BTTS 0/1O2.5 0/1
UPDFL
GF 1 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 1/1O2.5 1/1
PoliceUPDF
0.0Attack33.3
66.7Defence33.3
0.0Form0.0
23.7Power23.7
1.60xG1.29