Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
SC Villa · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Police 0-0 SC Villa, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Police 1-6 SC Villa
Original prediction
SC Villa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 10:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.59 | 25.0% | 26.2% | 1.2 pts |
| Draw | 2.99 | 30.0% | 31.6% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 1.99 | 45.0% | 42.3% | -2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.99 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.7 pts
Projected Score
Police 0–0 SC Villa
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
SC Villa
Probability
42.3%
Model confidence
42.3%
SC Villa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PoliceLWDLW
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
SC VillaDDLLW
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
PoliceSC Villa
20.0Attack53.3
73.3Defence86.7
46.7Form73.3
48.6Power72.0
0.65xG0.97