Police Terovs
Surin
COMPLETEDThailand · FA Cup · 10/21/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Police Tero · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Police Tero 4-1 Surin
Original prediction
Police Tero
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 9 October 2026 at 17:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.25 | 72.0% | 48.0% | -24.1 pts |
| Draw | 5.18 | 17.4% | 24.0% | 6.5 pts |
| Away | 8.56 | 10.5% | 28.1% | 17.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-24.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.2–28%
Predicted outcome
Police Tero
Probability
48.0%
Model confidence
48.0%
Police Tero has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 0 · GA 0 · avg 0.00/0.00