Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Polessya · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Polessya 2-0 Kudrivka
Original prediction
Polessya
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.27 | 71.6% | 42.4% | -29.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.89 | 18.5% | 26.5% | 7.9 pts |
| Away | 9.20 | 9.9% | 31.1% | 21.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.27 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-29.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Polessya
Probability
42.4%
Model confidence
42.4%
Polessya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PolessyaWWLWL
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
KudrivkaLLWDD
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
PolessyaKudrivka
25.0Attack100.0
83.3Defence66.7
41.7Form100.0
51.6Power88.7
1.12xG1.31