World · World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · 10/13/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Belgium W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-3 (12%), 0-4 (10%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Poland W 3-2 Belgium W
Original prediction
Belgium W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.42 | 37.0% | 25.7% | -11.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 26.9% | 24.5% | -2.4 pts |
| Away | 2.49 | 36.1% | 49.8% | 13.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–312%
- 2.0–410%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Belgium W
Probability
49.8%
Model confidence
49.8%
Belgium W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
GF 15 · GA 1 · avg 3.00/0.20