Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Poland · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Poland 6-0 Romania
Original prediction
Poland
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 00:31 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.61 | 58.7% | 44.8% | -13.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.20 | 22.6% | 26.7% | 4.1 pts |
| Away | 5.04 | 18.8% | 28.6% | 9.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.61 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Poland
Probability
44.8%
Model confidence
44.8%
Poland has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PolandLDDLW
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
RomaniaLLWDL
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
PolandRomania
16.7Attack50.0
50.0Defence0.0
16.7Form0.0
31.3Power21.5
1.44xG1.16