Polandvs
Bosnia & Herzegovina
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 9/25/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Poland · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Poland 0-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina
Original prediction
Poland
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.60 | 58.8% | 54.6% | -4.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.03 | 23.4% | 23.0% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 5.31 | 17.8% | 22.4% | 4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.03 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Poland
Probability
54.6%
Model confidence
54.6%
Poland has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00