Poland U21vs
Sweden U21
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · 9/30/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Poland U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Poland U21 3-0 Sweden U21
Original prediction
Poland U21
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 31 August 2026 at 20:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.54 | 59.4% | 49.0% | -10.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.20 | 21.7% | 23.2% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 4.83 | 18.9% | 27.8% | 8.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.54 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Poland U21
Probability
49.0%
Model confidence
49.0%
Poland U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 2 · avg 2.80/0.40
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00