UEFA U19 Championship - WomenUEFA U19 Championship - Women
Tuesday, 30 June 2026Last updated 14:58
Poland U19 W

Poland U19 W

Home
W
11
Full time
Germany U19 W

Germany U19 W

Away
L
GoalVio prediction
47% confidence
Germany U19 W(47%)
Most likely exact score0-1
Prediction missed— Result: Draw
Win probability
Poland U19 W
25%
Draw
29%
Germany U19 W
47%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Poland U19 W
100
Germany U19 W
9
Defence
Poland U19 W
66
Germany U19 W
66
Momentum
Poland U19 W
100
Germany U19 W
0
Danger (xG)
Poland U19 W
4.50
Germany U19 W
0.00
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 0.99 xG for Poland U19 W and 1.49 xG for Germany U19 W. Poland U19 W's projected xG of 0.99 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 0-1 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. With only 1 goal expected in total, the match is projected to be a tight, low-scoring affair where one goal may be enough to decide the contest.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 2.49 — moderate attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 0-1 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. Only 1 goal is expected in the most likely outcome — the model sees this as a tight, low-scoring contest where one goal could be decisive.The defensive profiles of both sides are stronger than their attacking counterparts — Poland U19 W's Defensive Stability (66) and Germany U19 W's (66) both suggest teams capable of limiting the opposition. When both defences are this organised, the model expects a lower-scoring environment.

xG for (Poland U19 W)
4.50
avg per match
xG for (Germany U19 W)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Poland U19 W)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Germany U19 W)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Poland U19 WPoland U19 W
WD
Germany U19 WGermany U19 W
LD

Probability breakdown

47% confidence
Poland U19 W25%
Draw29%
Germany U19 W47%

Germany U19 W leads with 47% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Germany U19 W Backed to Win — Model Projects 0-1

Poland U19 W take on Germany U19 W in UEFA U19 Championship - Women.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 1.49 expected goals for Germany U19 W against 0.99 for Poland U19 W — a clear advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: ⚠️ Upset Risk Poland U19 W have won 2 of their last 10 matches — a run of form that keeps this fixture competitive. While Germany U19 W carry the stronger underlying metrics, Poland U19 W's recent results mean the gap is narrower than the headline verdict implies.

Why GoalVio backs this

Germany U19 W are generating a consistent xG advantage — 1.49 projected against 0.99 for Poland U19 W. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 0.50 is the clearest signal in the model that Germany U19 W are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: Germany U19 W's projection depends on converting chances into goals. If Poland U19 W defend deep, absorb pressure, and hit on the counter, the match could end differently than the model projects — particularly if Germany U19 W fail to score in the first half.

Risk factors

  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
  • The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.

Head to head

Poland U19 W 0Draws 10 Germany U19 W
Avg goals: 2.0BTTS in 1/1
30 Jun 2026
Poland U19 W
D11
Germany U19 W

Recent form

Poland U19 W

Poland U19 W

W
vs Bosnia-Herzegovina U19
3 Jul 2026
51
D
vs Germany U19 W
30 Jun 2026
11
Germany U19 W

Germany U19 W

L
vs Spain U19 W
10 Jul 2026
01
D
@ Poland U19 W
30 Jun 2026
11

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Poland U19 W vs Germany U19 W?

GoalVio's model predicts Germany U19 W to win with 47% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Poland U19 W vs Germany U19 W?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 0-1.

Will both teams score in Poland U19 W vs Germany U19 W?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Poland U19 W vs Germany U19 W?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more