Pogon Szczecinvs
Korona Kielce
COMPLETEDPoland · Ekstraklasa · 10/11/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pogon Szczecin · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Korona Kielce, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Pogon Szczecin 2-0 Korona Kielce
Original prediction
Pogon Szczecin
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.17 | 42.5% | 46.8% | 4.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 27.6% | 28.0% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 3.08 | 29.9% | 25.1% | -4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.18 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.4 pts
Projected Score
Pogon Szczecin 1–0 Korona Kielce
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Pogon Szczecin
Probability
46.8%
Model confidence
46.8%
Pogon Szczecin has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20