Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczówvs
Busko-Zdroj
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 4 · 9/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 2-1 Busko-Zdroj
Original prediction
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.61 | 56.1% | 39.7% | -16.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.02 | 22.4% | 25.9% | 3.5 pts |
| Away | 4.22 | 21.4% | 34.4% | 13.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.61 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów
Probability
39.7%
Model confidence
39.7%
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40