Pogoń Siedlcevs
Stal Rzeszów
COMPLETEDPoland · I Liga · 10/18/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pogoń Siedlce · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Pogoń Siedlce 1-0 Stal Rzeszów, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Pogoń Siedlce 3-4 Stal Rzeszów
Original prediction
Pogoń Siedlce
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.27 | 40.2% | 47.3% | 7.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 27.3% | 27.5% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.81 | 32.5% | 25.2% | -7.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.1 pts
Projected Score
Pogoń Siedlce 1–0 Stal Rzeszów
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Pogoń Siedlce
Probability
47.3%
Model confidence
47.3%
Pogoń Siedlce has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20