Pogoń Siedlcevs
Stal Mielec
COMPLETEDPoland · I Liga · 8/29/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stal Mielec · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pogoń Siedlce 2-0 Stal Mielec
Original prediction
Stal Mielec
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:58 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.99 | 30.5% | 33.7% | 3.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 27.7% | 26.5% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.18 | 41.9% | 39.8% | -2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Stal Mielec
Probability
39.8%
Model confidence
39.8%
Stal Mielec has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 11 · GA 11 · avg 2.20/2.20