Pogoń Siedlcevs
Puszcza Niepołomice
COMPLETEDPoland · I Liga · 10/15/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Puszcza Niepołomice · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pogoń Siedlce 1-3 Puszcza Niepołomice
Original prediction
Puszcza Niepołomice
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.88 | 31.6% | 35.8% | 4.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.14 | 29.0% | 28.2% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.31 | 39.5% | 36.1% | -3.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.31 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Puszcza Niepołomice
Probability
36.1%
Model confidence
36.1%
Puszcza Niepołomice has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00