Pogoń Siedlcevs
Arka Gdynia
COMPLETEDPoland · I Liga · 9/20/2026, 12:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arka Gdynia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pogoń Siedlce 2-1 Arka Gdynia
Original prediction
Arka Gdynia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.57 | 25.4% | 27.9% | 2.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 27.1% | 26.6% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 1.91 | 47.5% | 45.5% | -2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Arka Gdynia
Probability
45.5%
Model confidence
45.5%
Arka Gdynia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40