Pogoń Grod. Mazowieckivs
Warta Poznań
COMPLETEDPoland · I Liga · 9/4/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1-0 Warta Poznań
Original prediction
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.51 | 36.2% | 43.9% | 7.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.5% | 26.2% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.44 | 37.2% | 29.9% | -7.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.51 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Probability
43.9%
Model confidence
43.9%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20