Pogoń Grod. Mazowieckivs
Polonia Warszawa
COMPLETEDPoland · I Liga · 10/17/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 0-1 Polonia Warszawa
Original prediction
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.06 | 29.6% | 54.8% | 25.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 26.3% | 22.3% | -4.1 pts |
| Away | 2.06 | 44.1% | 22.9% | -21.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
25.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–012%
- 2.2–012%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Probability
54.8%
Model confidence
54.8%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20