Pogoń Grod. Mazowieckivs
Nieciecza
COMPLETEDPoland · I Liga · 8/28/2026, 4:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2-2 Nieciecza
Original prediction
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:58 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.56 | 35.6% | 38.7% | 3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 26.1% | 27.3% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.38 | 38.3% | 34.0% | -4.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.49 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80