Pogoń Grod. Mazowieckivs
ŁKS Łódź
COMPLETEDPoland · I Liga · 9/19/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2-0 ŁKS Łódź
Original prediction
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.12 | 29.0% | 40.4% | 11.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 27.5% | 27.3% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.08 | 43.5% | 32.3% | -11.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.12 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60