Poland · III Liga - Group 4 · 9/11/2026, 5:57:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Podlasie Biała Podlaska · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-0 (15%), 1-0 (15%), 1-1 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2-1 KS Wieczysta Krakow II
Original prediction
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.11 | 43.2% | 41.9% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.68 | 24.7% | 28.6% | 3.9 pts |
| Away | 2.83 | 32.1% | 29.5% | -2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.11 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–015%
- 2.1–015%
- 3.1–114%
Predicted outcome
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Probability
41.9%
Model confidence
41.9%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00