II Liga - EastII Liga - East
Saturday, 25 July 2026Last updated 15:02
Podhale Nowy Targ

Podhale Nowy Targ

Home
L
31
Full time
Śląsk Wrocław II

Śląsk Wrocław II

Away
D
Stadion Mijeski im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego
GoalVio prediction
42% confidence
Podhale Nowy Targ(42%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Podhale Nowy Targ
42%
Draw
27%
Śląsk Wrocław II
31%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Podhale Nowy Targ
9
Śląsk Wrocław II
94
Defence
Podhale Nowy Targ
66
Śląsk Wrocław II
6
Momentum
Podhale Nowy Targ
0
Śląsk Wrocław II
33
Danger (xG)
Podhale Nowy Targ
0.00
Śląsk Wrocław II
2.70
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 1.40 xG for Podhale Nowy Targ and 1.22 xG for Śląsk Wrocław II. Śląsk Wrocław II's projected xG of 1.22 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 1-0 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. With only 1 goal expected in total, the match is projected to be a tight, low-scoring affair where one goal may be enough to decide the contest.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 2.62 — elevated attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 1-0 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. Only 1 goal is expected in the most likely outcome — the model sees this as a tight, low-scoring contest where one goal could be decisive.Historical meetings between these sides have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a pattern consistent with the current xG projection and the model's under 2.5 lean.

xG for (Podhale Nowy Targ)
0.00
avg per match
xG for (Śląsk Wrocław II)
2.70
avg per match
xG against (Podhale Nowy Targ)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Śląsk Wrocław II)
2.70
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Podhale Nowy TargPodhale Nowy Targ
L
Śląsk Wrocław IIŚląsk Wrocław II
D

Probability breakdown

42% confidence
Podhale Nowy Targ42%
Draw27%
Śląsk Wrocław II31%

Podhale Nowy Targ leads with 42% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Podhale Nowy Targ Backed to Win — Model Projects 1-0

Podhale Nowy Targ take on Śląsk Wrocław II in II Liga - East.

Key factors

: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. Podhale Nowy Targ's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 55% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.
: ⚠️ Upset Risk Śląsk Wrocław II have won 1 of their last 10 matches — a run of form that keeps this fixture competitive. While Podhale Nowy Targ carry the stronger underlying metrics, Śląsk Wrocław II's recent results mean the gap is narrower than the headline verdict implies.

Why GoalVio backs this

Podhale Nowy Targ have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these sides. Historical head-to-head dominance captures tactical matchup advantages that aggregate stats can miss — when one team consistently finds ways to beat the same opponent, that pattern is a meaningful signal in its own right.

Biggest risk: The xG gap between these sides is narrow — a small swing in form, a set-piece goal, or a tactical adjustment could flip the result. The model favours Podhale Nowy Targ, but this is not a fixture where the outcome is a foregone conclusion. If Śląsk Wrocław II score first, the game becomes genuinely open.

Risk factors

  • The xG gap is narrow at 0.18 — a small swing in form or tactics could flip the result.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
  • The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.

Recent form

Podhale Nowy Targ

Podhale Nowy Targ

L
@ Hutnik Kraków
17 May 2026
01
Śląsk Wrocław II

Śląsk Wrocław II

D
@ Świt Skolwin
17 May 2026
33

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Podhale Nowy Targ vs Śląsk Wrocław II?

GoalVio's model predicts Podhale Nowy Targ to win with 42% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Podhale Nowy Targ vs Śląsk Wrocław II?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Podhale Nowy Targ vs Śląsk Wrocław II?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Podhale Nowy Targ vs Śląsk Wrocław II?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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