Podbeskidzievs
Pogoń Siedlce
COMPLETEDPoland · I Liga · 10/9/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Podbeskidzie · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Podbeskidzie 1-0 Pogoń Siedlce
Original prediction
Podbeskidzie
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.81 | 50.3% | 42.2% | -8.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 25.9% | 28.0% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 3.83 | 23.8% | 29.8% | 6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.81 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Podbeskidzie
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
42.2%
Podbeskidzie has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80