Poblensevs
Valencia II
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · 9/27/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Valencia II · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Poblense 1-0 Valencia II
Original prediction
Valencia II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 40.4% | 33.0% | -7.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 28.8% | 29.0% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.91 | 30.8% | 38.0% | 7.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Valencia II
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
Valencia II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20