Poblensevs
Peña Deportiva
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · 10/25/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Poblense · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Poblense 0-0 Peña Deportiva, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Poblense 1-0 Peña Deportiva
Original prediction
Poblense
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 19:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.88 | 48.1% | 40.4% | -7.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.17 | 28.6% | 30.6% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 3.90 | 23.3% | 29.1% | 5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.88 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.8 pts
Projected Score
Poblense 0–0 Peña Deportiva
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Poblense
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
Poblense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PoblenseDWLWL
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Peña DeportivaLWLLL
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
PoblensePeña Deportiva
33.3Attack28.6
52.4Defence52.4
33.3Form19.0
42.7Power35.5
1.14xG0.84