Poblensevs
Castellón II
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · 10/11/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Castellón II · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (15%), 0-2 (13%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Poblense 2-1 Castellón II
Original prediction
Castellón II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.26 | 40.1% | 25.9% | -14.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.14 | 28.9% | 26.8% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 2.93 | 31.0% | 47.4% | 16.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–115%
- 2.0–213%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Castellón II
Probability
47.4%
Model confidence
47.4%
Castellón II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60