Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pobeda · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Pobeda are 1W-0D-1L in their last 2 (WL), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Astrakhan are 0W-2D-1L in their last 3 (DLD), averaging 1.67 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 5 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Pobeda hold an 11.6-point power-rating edge (56.8 v 45.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 59.5% in the Second League - Group 1, while Pobeda holds the strongest overall chance at 59% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Pobeda
Probability
59.5%
Model confidence
59.5%
Pobeda has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/2.00
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.67/2.00