Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorodvs
Krylya Sovetov II
COMPLETEDRussia · Second League - Group 4 · 10/4/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod 1-2 Krylya Sovetov II
Original prediction
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 8 September 2026 at 09:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.90 | 50.1% | 50.3% | 0.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.83 | 24.9% | 25.5% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 3.80 | 25.1% | 24.2% | -0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
Probability
50.3%
Model confidence
50.3%
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20