Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorodvs
Dinamo Barnaul
COMPLETEDRussia · Second League - Group 4 · 10/25/2026, 9:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 3-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod 1-2 Dinamo Barnaul
Original prediction
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:30 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.00 | 30.1% | 47.0% | 16.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 23.9% | 23.8% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 1.96 | 46.0% | 29.2% | -16.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.3–07%
Predicted outcome
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
Probability
47.0%
Model confidence
47.0%
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 14 · avg 1.20/2.80
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00