Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lazio · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Plzen are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Lazio are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WLDDW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Lazio hold a 10.9-point power-rating edge (59.0 v 69.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.2% in the UEFA Europa League, while Lazio holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 42% BTTS chance and 35% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lazio
Probability
43.2%
Model confidence
43.2%
Lazio has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20