GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 9/2/2025, 6:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Plymouth · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-1

Highconfidence

Plymouth are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDWLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Cheltenham are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (DLLLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Plymouth hold a 55.4-point power-rating edge (66.5 v 11.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 75.1% in the EFL Trophy, while Plymouth holds the strongest overall chance at 75% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 78% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Plymouth

Probability

75.1%

Model confidence

75.1%

Plymouth has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

PlymouthLDWLL

GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CheltenhamDLLLL

GF 2 · GA 12 · avg 0.40/2.40

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
PlymouthCheltenham
77.8Attack11.1
55.6Defence0.0
66.7Form0.0
66.5Power11.1
3.28xG1.07
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