Plymouthvs
Burton Albion
COMPLETEDEngland · League One · 9/26/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Plymouth · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Plymouth 0-1 Burton Albion
Original prediction
Plymouth
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.55 | 60.1% | 55.3% | -4.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.17 | 22.3% | 21.6% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 5.27 | 17.7% | 23.2% | 5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Plymouth
Probability
55.3%
Model confidence
55.3%
Plymouth has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 7 · avg 3.00/1.40
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80