Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bradford · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Plymouth 2-0 Bradford
Original prediction
Bradford
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.17 | 42.9% | 32.6% | -10.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 27.2% | 27.6% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 3.12 | 29.9% | 39.8% | 9.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Bradford
Probability
39.8%
Model confidence
39.8%
Bradford has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PlymouthLDLWW
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
BradfordDWWWD
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
PlymouthBradford
33.3Attack50.0
33.3Defence100.0
16.7Form100.0
31.3Power86.5
1.04xG1.52