Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Plymouth · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Plymouth 3-0 Barnsley
Original prediction
Plymouth
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.66 | 56.3% | 46.4% | -9.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.08 | 22.9% | 25.1% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 4.50 | 20.8% | 28.5% | 7.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.66 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Plymouth
Probability
46.4%
Model confidence
46.4%
Plymouth has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PlymouthWLWLD
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
BarnsleyLWWWD
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
PlymouthBarnsley
46.7Attack40.0
46.7Defence46.7
46.7Form46.7
48.8Power46.2
1.55xG1.21