Plymouthvs
AFC Wimbledon
COMPLETEDEngland · League One · 10/10/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Plymouth · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Plymouth 1-0 AFC Wimbledon, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Plymouth 2-1 AFC Wimbledon
Original prediction
Plymouth
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.46 | 63.4% | 51.2% | -12.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.39 | 21.1% | 26.9% | 5.8 pts |
| Away | 6.01 | 15.4% | 21.9% | 6.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.46 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.3 pts
Projected Score
Plymouth 1–0 AFC Wimbledon
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Plymouth
Probability
51.2%
Model confidence
51.2%
Plymouth has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PlymouthDWLWW
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AFC WimbledonDDDWW
GF 4 · GA 1 · avg 0.80/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
PlymouthAFC Wimbledon
59.3Attack25.0
59.3Defence66.7
59.3Form50.0
59.8Power49.5
1.39xG0.67