Plymouth U21vs
Cardiff City U21
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League Cup · 9/7/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cardiff City U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Plymouth U21 2-3 Cardiff City U21
Original prediction
Cardiff City U21
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.42 | 26.5% | 28.9% | 2.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.15 | 21.8% | 24.8% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 1.75 | 51.7% | 46.3% | -5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.75 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Cardiff City U21
Probability
46.3%
Model confidence
46.3%
Cardiff City U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/3.00
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80