Plymouth Parkwayvs
Chertsey Town
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Plymouth Parkway · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Plymouth Parkway 2-0 Chertsey Town
Original prediction
Plymouth Parkway
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 20:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.82 | 49.9% | 44.8% | -5.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.81 | 23.8% | 25.0% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 3.45 | 26.3% | 30.2% | 3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.82 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Plymouth Parkway
Probability
44.8%
Model confidence
44.8%
Plymouth Parkway has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60