Plaza Coloniavs
Paysandu
COMPLETEDUruguay · Segunda División · 9/19/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Plaza Colonia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Plaza Colonia 1-0 Paysandu, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Plaza Colonia 1-1 Paysandu
Original prediction
Plaza Colonia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 16:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.84 | 49.2% | 56.9% | 7.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 28.0% | 26.6% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 3.97 | 22.8% | 16.5% | -6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.22 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.7 pts
Projected Score
Plaza Colonia 1–0 Paysandu
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Plaza Colonia
Probability
56.9%
Model confidence
56.9%
Plaza Colonia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00