Plaza Coloniavs
Cerrito
COMPLETEDUruguay · Segunda División · 10/4/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Plaza Colonia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Plaza Colonia 1-0 Cerrito, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Plaza Colonia 1-3 Cerrito
Original prediction
Plaza Colonia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.09 | 43.5% | 43.1% | -0.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.18 | 28.6% | 30.6% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 3.27 | 27.9% | 26.3% | -1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.5 pts
Projected Score
Plaza Colonia 1–0 Cerrito
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Plaza Colonia
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
43.1%
Plaza Colonia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80