Plaza Coloniavs
CA River Plate
COMPLETEDUruguay · Segunda División · 10/18/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Plaza Colonia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Plaza Colonia 1-0 CA River Plate, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Plaza Colonia 2-1 CA River Plate
Original prediction
Plaza Colonia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 22:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.50 | 36.0% | 49.1% | 13.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.03 | 29.8% | 27.0% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 2.63 | 34.2% | 23.9% | -10.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.50 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.1 pts
Projected Score
Plaza Colonia 1–0 CA River Plate
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Plaza Colonia
Probability
49.1%
Model confidence
49.1%
Plaza Colonia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00