Platensevs
Municipal Limeño
COMPLETEDEl-Salvador · Primera Division · 10/4/2026, 9:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Municipal Limeño · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Platense 2-1 Municipal Limeño
Original prediction
Municipal Limeño
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.87 | 31.3% | 30.4% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 27.9% | 28.2% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.21 | 40.8% | 41.5% | 0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.0–113%
Predicted outcome
Municipal Limeño
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
41.5%
Municipal Limeño has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60