Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Águila · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Platense 0-1 Águila
Original prediction
Águila
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.37 | 26.5% | 31.7% | 5.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.14 | 28.4% | 25.6% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 1.98 | 45.1% | 42.8% | -2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.98 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Águila
Probability
42.8%
Model confidence
42.8%
Águila has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PlatenseLLWLD
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
ÁguilaWDDWL
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
PlatenseÁguila
40.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence53.3
40.0Form36.7
45.7Power47.8
1.20xG1.37